Kevin Harvick has now cast serious doubt over Ross Chastain's NASCAR playoff hopes. The former driver has suggested that the Trackhouse Racing driver seems to be running out of time to force his way into Chase contention.

These comments are relevant because of Chastain's poor form this season. His eighth-place finish at Pocono marked only his third top-10 result of the 2026 season.

Discussing Trackhouse’s form, Harvick spoke on his Happy Hour podcast, saying, “Look, I think Trackhouse is, I mean, SVG's been the best car. Even at most of the ovals, he got tore up this weekend in an accident. So, it's hard to tell where they would have run.”

Shane van Gisbergen, despite being a road course specialist, has significantly improved on ovals this season and is actually the best-performing Trackhouse driver at rank 14. He's spearheading the role that was expected to be Chastain's.

Harvick added, “You've got Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski outside of the top 16 looking to get themselves back in.” He concluded, “I don't know that they're gonna make the Chase. Time's starting to run out.”

“It's tough because we expect Ross Chastain to be racing in the top five and having a chance to win races. That's the expectation that there is. And that's the expectation that has been set from Trackhouse, Ross Chastain, and that whole organization.”

The urgency of the situation also seems to be staggering, as only 10 races remain before playoff contention is locked in. Let’s take a look at what Chastain needs to get into playoff contention.

Chastain’s playoff mountain gets steeper

Ross Chastain now enters the final 10 races of the regular season with a 61-point deficit to the playoff cutoff. The Trackhouse Racing driver sits 23rd with 294 points.

The bigger issue, however, is that Chastain must jump six drivers, including Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, to reach the top 16. Let’s take a look at that.

Through the already concluded races of this season, Chastain averages just 18.4 points per event.

To realistically have a shot at the Chase, he needs around 30 points per race over the final 10 events, which in turn is a 63% increase in scoring pace. Basically, he needs six or seven top-10 finishes, multiple top-fives, and a lot of stage points.

This worrisome math is the exact reason that Kevin Harvick seems skeptical of Chastain’s ability to qualify for the cutoff, because basically every race from now on carries severe importance for Chastain.

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Written by

Uday Jakhar

Edited by

Suyashdeep Sason