Round 15 of the Formula 1 calendar shifts to the tight walls and long straights of Baku this Sunday, September 26, and the storyline heading in is simple: can anyone slow down a runaway championship leader before the season enters its final stretch? 

Baku has been on the calendar since 2017, and this weekend's race covers 51 laps and 190.170 miles on a layout that has produced four different winners across its last four editions. 

With a title fight that already looks lopsided and a McLaren car that has quietly become the class of the field on street circuits, this is shaping up to be one of the more interesting rounds left on the schedule. 

Race Odds

According to the reports put out by Alex Dudley on Vegas odds, Kimi Antonelli currently leads as the favourite to win the race. 

• Kimi Antonelli: +125
• Lando Norris: +400
• George Russell: +500
• Charles Leclerc: +600
• Lewis Hamilton: +900
• Max Verstappen: +1000
• Oscar Piastri: +2500
• Field: +30000 or longer

Race Preview

Saturday's grid order will largely decide Sunday's result. Mercedes has the single-lap pace to threaten pole with either Antonelli or Russell, but the team has failed to convert that speed into a front-row start in two of the last three races, an opening that leaves the door ajar for McLaren or Red Bull to strike first. 

Baku has two DRS zones, but the long run out of the final corner into Turn 1, over half a mile at full throttle, is the track's signature passing spot and the one most drivers rely on to make a move stick. 

The rest of the lap, especially the narrow Old City section around Turns 7 to 9, punishes any mistake severely and leaves little room to make up ground elsewhere, which is exactly why teams like McLaren and Red Bull will be treating Friday's qualifying session with as much urgency as Saturday's race itself. 

Prediction 

Given how well McLaren's car has translated to street circuits all year, and with Norris still looking for payback after losing out on strategy in Madrid, he's the angle worth backing to reach three wins in his last five races. 

Where things stand before the Azerbaijan Grand Prix? 

Here's the form that shapes that call: Antonelli's 81-point championship lead owes as much to smart timing as raw speed, capped off by a safety-car pit stop in Madrid that jumped him ahead of a fast-but-unlucky Norris. 

Even so, Norris arrives in good shape, having won two of his last four starts in a McLaren that keeps finding extra pace on street tracks. Russell, by contrast, is losing ground to his own teammate after a quiet fifth in Spain.

Ferrari's weekend collapsed early with Lewis Hamilton's brake failure and a fourth for Charles Leclerc. 

Max Verstappen was the exception, taking second for his third podium in four races and keeping Red Bull in the mix. 

Kimi Antonelli has the points lead locked up, but on a track this narrow, anything can still happen on Saturday. 

Written by

Chionia Libania Colaco